It’s all too easy to pile on to the Research In Motion–bashing bandwagon. The company’s decline is the stuff of water-cooler chatter, and RIM will doubtless end up as the subject of dozens of business-school case studies. But technology markets are always a little uncertain, so for now let’s get beyond the finger-pointing. RIM is a different firm today than it was in 2007. It has new management, a full awareness of the gravity of the situation, restless investors, an upcoming OS release and a number of lingering advantages that can still be leveraged. What might the future hold for RIM? CEO Thorsten Heins has said he plans to surprise critics with RIM’s transformation. But in case you don’t like surprises, here’s a brief look at the most likely scenarios for RIM going forward and their probability of occurring.